The 2019 season is over, which means it’s time for dynasty fantasy football owners to start building up their 2020 rosters. Maintaining consistent success in dynasty leagues is all about identifying when a player like Derrick Henry reaches their maximum value and selling high. The following players will probably have strong 2020 seasons, but you can sell high and receive far more than they’re going to be worth in the future.
Fantasy Football Sell High Candidates – Dynasty Leagues
Derrick Henry is a fantastic running back, nobody denies this. However, what he’s doing right now is completely unsustainable and he’s going to regress to the mean in 2020. No matter how good he looks in the playoffs, it’s simply impossible to average nearly six yards per carry and receive over 30 touches per game over an entire season.
This regression is going to be compounded by Henry’s body taking an unnatural amount of work in 2019. According to Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schultz, running backs tend to have terrible follow-up seasons if they record over 390 touches. Including the playoffs, Henry currently sits at 388 and will probably clear the 400-touch marker against Kansas City. The human body simply isn’t built to handle that type of workload, so he’ll probably have a relatively rough 2020.
Of course, nobody knows where Henry is going to play in 2020. The soon-to-be free agent will break the bank, and that uncertainty is terrible for fantasy. More than any other position, running backs are a product of their environment. It doesn’t matter how good you are, you’re not going to be able to find sustained success without reliable blocking. Le’Veon Bell is still a great running back, but he was (predictably) one of fantasy football’s bigger disappointments because New York had a terrible offensive line.
Some running backs are able to overcome this lack of rushing efficiency by making plays in the passing game. However, there is no reason to believe Henry can do that. Even in the midst of this career year, Henry ended 2019 with just 18 receptions for 206 yards and two touchdowns.
If he remains in Tennessee, he’ll probably finish as a low-end RB1, but people are going to treat him as the overall RB2 behind Christian McCaffrey. You don’t have to trade Henry by any means, but you get just about anything you want by trading him to the right owner.
Even though it didn’t end on the highest of notes, the Baltimore Ravens had a fantastic season in 2019. Lamar Jackson will probably win MVP, and most pundits are probably going to pick them to win the Super Bowl in 2020. Every year, there is one team whose players inevitably get overhyped and overdrafted. Last year, it was the Cleveland Browns. This year, it’s probably going to be the Baltimore Ravens.
Mark Ingram had a fantastic season, accumulating 1,265 combined yards and 15 combined touchdowns during his first season with the Ravens. However, he’s also entering his age-31 season and is well past the point where running backs tend to decline. Teams are probably going to figure out how to slow down Baltimore’s offense over the offseason, and Ingram is probably going to start losing some touches to Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. If you’re the Ingram owner, you should do try to flip him for a young WR2.
DeVante Parker was one of fantasy’s biggest surprise breakouts in 2019, and he should remain a reliable weapon in 2020. However, Parker’s 2019 season was something of a perfect storm and he probably won’t come close to matching his output in 2020.
For one, Parker was the only reliable target in Miami throughout the season. The Dolphins probably had the least-talented team in the league and Ryan Fitzpatrick exclusively targeted Parker down the stretch. Now armed with tons of cap space and draft picks, the Dolphins will probably improve their weapons, which means less of a target share in 2020. Additionally, Preston Williams will be back, and Parker’s splits were notably worse with Williams in the lineup.
Having Ryan Fitzpatrick as your quarterback is one of the best things possible for fantasy football. The career journeyman is notorious for his aggressive decision-making and desire to throw the ball downfield. The Dolphins are going to add a quarterback eventually, and that quarterback probably won’t be as aggressive as Fitzpatrick. Parker will still carry some fantasy value, but he’s nothing more than a WR3 right now. See if you can capitalize on his career season and get something else of value.
Cooper Kupp finished as the WR4 in half-point scoring formats, but that finish doesn’t reflect just how much of a roller coaster his season was. From Week 6 on, Kupp only eclipsed 53 receiving yards on three occasions, a terrible rate for a supposed WR1. He exploded against the Cincinnati Bengals (7/220/1) and caught touchdowns in each of his final five games, which masked his overall inconsistency. That touchdown luck is going to regress and you don’t want to have Kupp in your lineup when it does.
Additionally, the Los Angeles Rams have no idea what they want to be on offense. The NFL figured out Sean McVay, Brandin Cooks can’t stay healthy, Jared Goff looks like a bad investment, and Todd Gurley isn’t the workhorse he once was. The Rams started to reinvent themselves down the stretch with Tyler Higbee, and that’s bad new for Kupp. Until there’s more clarity around the passing game, you’re going to want to stay away from this offense.
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