Chester Rogers Week 10 Fantasy Football Outlook

Chester Rogers
PITTSBURGH, PA - NOVEMBER 03: Chester Rogers #80 of the Indianapolis Colts celebrates with Jack Doyle #84 after a 4-yard touchdown reception in the fourth quarter during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field on November 3, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)

The Indianapolis Colts are battling injury, and wide receiver Chester Rogers is drawing intrigue in deeper fantasy football leagues. T.Y Hilton is out for at least one more week, opening a spot for Rogers to start opposite Zach Pascal. Six teams have a bye in Week 10, and Rogers is one of the few unowned fantasy options who actually has a reliable snap count and target share. The former undrafted free agent only has 12 catches on the season, but can he improve his production with a larger snap count?

Fantasy Football: Chester Rogers Week 10 Outlook

Chester Rogers the Player

So far this season, Chester Rogers spent the majority of his time as the third wide receiver on the Indianapolis Colts depth chart. The Grambling State product is primarily utilized in the short game, as his 6.4 receiving yards before reception is tied for 28th among wide receivers, along with players like Adam Humphries and Geronimo Allison. It’s no secret that deep targets are more valuable than short targets in fantasy football, so Rogers is going to need a high percentage of targets if he’s to be fantasy relevant.

Unfortunately, it’s hard to imagine Rogers seeing a large workload. Even though he’s been behind Hilton and Pascal on the depth chart, Rogers has still been on the field on a regular basis. The fourth-year wide receiver has eclipsed the 40% snap threshold in each and every one of the Colts’ nine games. Despite this, Rogers has yet to eclipse 48 yards or six targets in a single outing.

Even with Hilton gone, it’s not like Rogers is inheriting a particularly valuable role. Pascal spent most of the season as the starter opposite Hilton, and he was anything but a consistent fantasy option. Prior to Week 9, Pascal only had two games with more than three targets. Pascal was able to make the most out of his opportunity thanks to a big-play potential that Rogers simply doesn’t have. Rogers might see one or two additional targets per game, but the vast majority of Hilton’s vacated targets are going to go to Pascal or a notably frustrated Eric Ebron.

The Quarterback Situation

Even if you believe in Chester Rogers, it’s worth noting that the quarterback situation is in flux. Jacoby Brissett is battling an MCL injury and might not play in Week 10’s showdown against the Miami Dolphins. Even if he plays, he’s not going to be at 100%. If he doesn’t, the Colts will turn to backup quarterback Brian Hoyer. Hoyer’s a fine backup and is more than capable of filling in for a game or two, but the Colts will likely limit their offense if Hoyer has to start.

Either way, the Colts are probably going to go into this game with a run-heavy gameplan. The Dolphins, of course, are atrocious in all three phases of the game, and that includes defending the run. The Dolphins don’t have the offensive pieces to keep up with most NFL offenses, so the Colts should jump out on an early lead. Once they do, look for Marlon Mack to see a considerable amount of work to run out the clock.

Chester Rogers is only a smart play if you are in a deep league and are truly, truly desperate. There’s probably someone better on the waiver wire that you can plug and play for a week. However, if you’re forced to start Rogers, you better hope he finds his way into the endzone.

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