NFL Win Totals: The Good and the Bad

NFL Win Totals
ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 29: Dallas Cowboys Quarterback Dak Prescott (4) drops back to pass during the game between the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints on November 29, 2018 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. (Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

NFL win totals is a market that continuously appeals to both everyday gamblers and sharp bettors. It feeds off of the insatiable appetite that average fans have for football, while also giving sharp early action and edges on the market. Even though win totals appeal to everyone, there are not just positives to betting a win total.

To start with, when you bet on NFL win totals you are leaving some of your bankroll tied up for months. When a gambler makes a bet, the idea is that you will see a return on investment quicker than you would if you simply left your money in a bank. Betting on win totals do not provide that instant gratification that winning a regular bet would. Your bankroll will simply remain stagnant until the football season is over. If you invest in a win total when they are released, usually in the month of June, you will not see a return until nearly the end of the football season. That can be up to nine months of your bankroll being tied up in a specific team.

Another issue with betting on NFL win totals is the impact that it has on your weekly capping. If you are an avid gambler, that means there isn’t a Sunday where you will not have at least five to 10 bets on the board. If at the beginning of the year you decided you liked the over 8.5 win total for the Dallas Cowboys, that number will continuously be in your mind while analyzing Cowboys matchups. It might not be consciously, but at least subconsciously you will have that win total in mind. You might have more of a tendency to lean in the Cowboys favor while capping because you want them to hit their win total.

Either way, keeping those two defaults in mind, the win total market usually has an edge or two worth investing in. After looking at the opening numbers, here are the three-win totals that I like the most.

Atlanta Falcons Under 9 -128 at Bookmaker

The Falcons won seven games last season, and I don’t see them getting much better this year. They have finally ended the failed Steve Sarkisian project at offensive coordinator and brought in former head coach Dirk Koetter to replace him. Koetter has a history with Ryan, and that might be enough to make this offense better. Keep in mind, Ryan has a tendency to have tough first years with new offensive coordinators.

They play 11 games in a dome this season, which could also help this offense. Unfortunately, on the other side of the ball, I don’t think they have improved all that much. I see Atlanta getting into several shootouts this year in the NFC South. I worry Koetter and Ryan won’t click quick enough to get the wins early on. Another season will go by with a mediocre seven wins. The Falcons will have once again wasted a year of Julio Jones in his prime.

Dallas Cowboys Over 9 -124 at Bookmaker

The Cowboys were on a path to become the laughingstock of the NFC East at the beginning of last season. Then general manager Jerry Jones made a splash in bringing in wide receiver Amari Cooper. This new three-headed beast of Cooper, Dak Prescott, and Ezekiel Elliott brought the Cowboys to the second round of the playoffs. Not much has changed for the Cowboys this year, besides the departure of the craft wide receiver Cole Beasley.

This season is an all-in type of year for the Cowboys. Jones knows he cannot keep all these young superstars under contract. This year could be the best chance they have to return to the promised land. A feat they haven’t been able to accomplish since way back in 1993. With all of these young stars playing for huge contracts I can see this offense coming out firing on all cylinders. We already know their defense is one of the strongest in the league. If head coach Jason Garrett can stay out of his own way, then the Cowboys could be on their way to another NFC East championship.

Jacksonville Jaguars Under 8 -106 @ Bookmaker

After what seemed like forever, the Jacksonville Jaguars were finally able to bring in a respectable player at the quarterback position. This off-season, they signed sought after Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles. Last year, still under Bortles, the Jaguars won only five games. This season, Vegas expects Foles to be enough for them to win four more games. I do not see it.

Foles played well last year when replacing Carson Wentz, but the reality is that we have no idea what he will be like as a starting quarterback. We haven’t seen him play as a starter for an entire season in this modern-day NFL. The defense is still lights out, but a four-win increase is a little too steep for my blood. The best you can hope for is a push at eight, but anything more would be shocking.

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