Davante Adams Fantasy Football Outlook

Davante Adams
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 23: Davante Adams #17 of the Green Bay Packers runs the route against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on December 23, 2018 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Steven Ryan/Getty Images)

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams has been an ascending player for a couple of years now and finally put together his first 1,000-yard season in 2018. He was relied upon heavily by quarterback Aaron Rodgers and he did not let him down. Adams has always had the tools to be an elite WR and now he’s showing that on the field. The question now is: Can he build on what was already an amazing season?

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Davante Adams Fantasy Preview

2018 Recap

As mentioned earlier, Adams was looked to early and often by Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers all throughout last season. Adams finished the year with a whopping 169 targets, good enough for second in the league behind only Julio Jones’ 170. With such a high target count you’d expect nothing less than Pro Bowl numbers and Adams did not disappoint. He finished the 2018 season as the 2nd highest scoring receiver in fantasy after totaling 111 catches, 1,386 yards, and 13 touchdowns.

As great as those numbers are, it’s his consistency that’s most impressive. In 15 games, Adams never scored fewer than 16 PPR points. Over those 15 games, he had an average of 22 PPR points per game, if that’s not WR1 numbers then I don’t know what is.

2019 Outlook

Looking ahead to the 2019 season, there isn’t any reason to believe that Adams numbers will drop off. The Packers haven’t brought in any new receivers, whether through the draft or free agency. They are clearly comfortable with what they have in Adams, Geronimo Allison, and 2nd year WR’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimous St. Brown. That being said, I don’t see any of those guys coming close to competing with Adams for targets. Allison has shown potential but very little sustained success while Valdes-Scantling and St. Brown are both still developing.

Another major factor in why Adams needs to be one of the first two receivers off the board: Aaron Rodgers. Any time a wide receiver is playing with an elite quarterback his value obviously skyrockets. I don’t think any group of receivers has benefited more from having an elite quarterback than the Packers receivers over the last decade. Over the last nine seasons, a Packers receiver has finished as WR14 or better seven times, of those seven, five finished in the top five. The two seasons without a top 14 WR featured Rodgers breaking his collarbone and the other had Jordy Nelson tearing his ACL. Bottom line is, as long as Rodgers and Adams are on the field together, they should be an unstoppable duo.

When it comes to fantasy football, there is nothing more valuable than touchdowns. When it comes to touchdowns, few do it better than Davante Adams. Over the last three seasons, only Antonio Brown (36) has more touchdown receptions than Adams (35). A major reason why Adams gets in the end zone so frequently is the number of red zone targets he accumulates. In 2018, Adams led the league in red zone targets with 31. That’s nearly two red zone opportunities per game which may not seem like a lot but compare that to someone like Julio Jones (17 red zone targets) and you see how valuable that number is. Once inside the 20-yard line, it seems as if Rodgers and Adams have some kind of mind-meld that’s simply unstoppable.

Davante Adams Average Draft Position

According to FantasyPros, Davante Adams is currently coming off the board at No. 10 overall and as the second receiver selected behind only Deandre Hopkins. This projection puts Adams right at the bottom of the first round which would be great value for a player of his caliber. The thought of grabbing him at 10 and then still getting a top end RB a few picks later should have fantasy managers thrilled.

The days of “always pick running backs first” are long over. Over the last decade or so the NFL has become more and more of a passing league and you must take notice, especially when playing with PPR scoring. I’d look to target Adams as early as the sixth overall pick in PPR formats. He has the production to back it up as well as one of the NFL’s best passers throwing him the ball.

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