The Chicago Bears headed into the off-season looking to get their young quarterback Mitch Trubisky a top wide receiver target. They did so by inking former Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Allen Robinson to a three-year, $42 million contract with $25 million guaranteed, a signing that pegged the Bears as a free agency winner this off-season. Robinson, who is coming off a torn ACL suffered in week one of the 2017 season is looking to re-launch his once promising career. So here’s to you Mr. Robinson, welcome to the Fantasy Spotlight!
2018 Fantasy Spotlight: Allen Robinson
The Breakout Season
After just scratching the surface during his 2014 rookie campaign, Robinson burst onto the scene in 2015. In what many called his “breakout season,” Robinson finished with 80 catches for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. He was targeted 151 times which was the seventh most for any receiver in the league. Fantasy players bought into these numbers and drafted Robinson as high as a WR5 in 2016 fantasy drafts.
Can’t Live Up to the Hype
Robinson went from fantasy darling to fantasy enemy in 2016. After fantasy owners invested so highly in the young receiver, they watched his stock rapidly fall. According to Next Gen Stats, his catch percentage dropped from 53 percent in 2015 to 48.4 percent (bottom 10, minimum 43 targets) in 2016. For the second straight season, he was targeted 151 times. However, he caught seven fewer passes and saw his yardage total drop from 1,400 to 883. The 14 touchdowns from 2015 dropped to six in 2016. His average separation off the ball was a mere two yards, good enough for third worst behind Kelvin Benjamin and Dez Bryant, both with 1.8.
Many people argued that Robinson’s regression was due to the spotty play of quarterback Blake Bortles. While that certainly was a factor, can we really expect that things are going to be much better in Chicago? Robinson enters the season as the WR1 for the unproven Trubisky. He is tops on a depth chart that includes Kevin White, Josh Bellamy, and Bennie Fowler. As for Trubisky, it was an average rookie season for the young signal-caller. Trubisky completed 59.4 percent of his passes for 2,193 yards, but his seven touchdowns were matched by his seven interceptions.
Fantasypros.com gives Robinson an expert consensus ranking (ECR) of 36th in PPR leagues. He is currently ranked as the WR19 in draft and WR15 in dynasty. So, by all accounts, he is being targeted as a fantasy WR2.
There are many questions that need answers. Is Robinson fully Healthy? If so, which Robinson do we get, the 2015 version or the 2016 one? Will Trubisky take the next step in his progression like Jared Goff did, leading to more production for Robinson?
If we were in the business of predicting, which of course we are, Robinson will revert to his 2016 stat line.
He will finish as the WR24 in PPR leagues with 68 catches, 871 yards, and seven touchdowns.